Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Arthur Fils Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Fils currently edges Carreno-Busta in second serve points won by a small margin, with 44.26% compared to 43.93%.
• Carreno-Busta excels in returning second serves, securing 45.74% compared to Fils' 41.53%. How significant could this margin be in predicting the winner? It could play a crucial role in determining the match's outcome.
• When it comes to first serve returns, Fils holds a slight advantage, winning 28% versus Carreno-Busta's 26.84%.
• Under pressure, particularly in saving breakpoints, Fils shows a small advantage, successfully saving 58.14% compared to Carreno-Busta's 56.84%.
• Overall match win percentage over the past year favors Fils at 63.64% over Carreno-Busta's 56.9%, suggesting a trend of better recent success for Fils.
• On different surfaces, Fils shines on grass with a 67% win rate, while Carreno-Busta's strength lies on clay with a 66% win rate. However, Carreno-Busta struggles more on grass, their weakest surface.
• Match level comparison shows Fils competing mostly at the Masters series with a 60.87% win rate, whereas Carreno-Busta has engaged in lower-tier tournaments with a higher win rate of 72.73%, indicating contrasting competition levels.
• In their only direct match, Fils defeated Carreno-Busta in straight sets, 2-0.
• Under extreme pressure in tiebreaks and completing matches, Fils has a 100% tiebreak win rate against Carreno-Busta.
• Fils has faced tougher competition, with opponents averaging a rank of 48.13, significantly higher than Carreno-Busta's average opponent rank of 160.81.
• If the match proceeds to a deciding set, Fils appears stronger, having won 65% of such situations, compared to Carreno-Busta's 44%.
• Recent break point conversion shows Fils converting more opportunities at 37.72% against Carreno-Busta's 31.25%, highlighting Fils' edge in critical points.

Editorial Prediction (July 29, 2025, UTC):

As Fils and Carreno-Busta prepare to meet again, key performance indicators provide significant insights into potential outcomes.

Fils exhibits a marginal edge in second serve performance and breakpoint conversion, crucial for maintaining leads and momentum against Carreno-Busta.

Though Carreno-Busta's return of second serves is more effective, Fils has proven adept at handling high-pressure situations, including saving breakpoints and winning decisive sets.

Additionally, Fils' victory in their last head-to-head encounter showcases his capability to handle Carreno-Busta, particularly in tiebreak scenarios.

Considering Fils' exposure to higher-ranked competition and consistent performance on various surfaces, the signs point toward his favorability to win this match. Based on these assessments, Fils is the likely winner for this upcoming tennis match.